Today: 10 March 2025
28 March 2024
1 min read

Morgan Stanley: India GDP Growth 6.8% by 2025

The brokerage expects growth to be broad-based and the gaps between rural-urban consumption and private-public capex to narrow in F2025….writes Sanjeev Sharma

Global brokerage Morgan Stanley has raised India’s GDP growth expectation to 6.8 per cent in 2025 from 6.5 per cent on continued traction in industrial and capex activity.

“We raise GDP growth to 6.8 per cent YoY in F2025, a rise of 30bps from our earlier estimate of 6.5 per cent, on continued traction in industrial and capex activity. On CY basis, we expect growth at 6.8 per cent YoY for 2024, from 6.4 per cent earlier”, it said.

“We expect GDP growth to track at around 7 per cent in QE March-2024 with GVA growth of 6.3 per cent and thus F2024 GDP growth of 7.9 per cent,” Morgan Stanley said.

The brokerage expects growth to be broad-based and the gaps between rural-urban consumption and private-public capex to narrow in F2025.

The cycle will have more years of steady expansion driven by improvement in productivity growth, which will ensure macro stability remains benign, it said.

Moderating inflation trajectory and benign current account deficit opens up room for a shallow easing cycle as we have been highlighting. However, the brokerage expects the easing cycle to be delayed to 3Q24 from our earlier view of 2Q24.

“Further, we highlight risks of a potential delay and/or risk of no easing driven by better-than-expected trend in growth, capex and productivity, which will imply higher neutral real rates,” Morgan Stanley said.

Domestic demand growth has been steadfast and is a key driver of the constructive outlook for the economy. Consumption accounts for 60.3 per cent of GDP and is the mainstay of the domestic demand story. While private consumption has recovered over the last four quarters, with growth tracking at 3.5 per cent in QE December-2023 vs. 1.8 per cent in December-2022, the trend in private consumption is just catching up to the pre-pandemic trend, Morgan Stanley said.

ALSO READ: Mumbai Surpasses Beijing in Billionaire Count

Previous Story

LG Group’s $74B Investment in Future Tech by 2028

Next Story

UAE condemns Israeli seizure of land in Jordan Valley

Latest from Business

Bitcoin Plunges as Market Faces Series of Shocks

This hacking incident has heightened concerns over the security and stability of cryptocurrencies, leading to a loss of confidence among traders and investors The price of Bitcoin has experienced a significant drop,

Lulu Add News Store at Satwa 

Majid Saqer Almarri, CEO of Dubai Land Department inaugurated the new hypermarket in the presence of Yusuff Ali M.A., Chairman of Lulu Group and other dignitaries.  Lulu has officially opened the doors
Go toTop

Don't Miss

‘Bazball is overhyped’

Srikkanth, a proponent of the slam-bang style of batting in

India lauds ties with Arab world

India’s Minister for External Affairs Dr S. Jaishankar says the